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Analysis: Bitcoin Rises with US Stocks, but Options Market Still Bets on Downside Risk

Analysis: Bitcoin Rises with US Stocks, but Options Market Still Bets on Downside Risk

Odaily星球日报Odaily星球日报2026/04/16 04:57
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Odaily reported that Bitcoin rose to about $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending different signals. QCP Capital pointed out that the current rally is mainly driven by spot activity rather than a broad resurgence in risk appetite. At present, Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates remain negative and open interest is declining, indicating that bears are increasing hedges rather than passively closing positions.

The options market is also relatively cautious: short-term implied volatility remains low, with the one-month maturity below the three-month, and risk reversal indicators show greater demand for downside protection than for upside bets. This indicates that traders are more willing to pay for potential declines rather than chase the rally. QCP considers this more of a “rebound” than a trend reversal.

On the macro front, long-term US Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a return to risk appetite; gold remains near its highs, indicating that safe haven demand still exists. Institutions note that the current market move is more of a “sentiment recovery” driven by expectations of a ceasefire rather than the resolution of core risks.

In addition, Ethereum is performing relatively strongly, with the ETH/BTC ratio rebounding to around 0.0315. On-chain trading volume and stablecoin supply both reached historic highs, indicating signs that funds are rotating into higher beta assets. However, the market still needs to observe how subsequent risk events develop to confirm the sustainability of this rally. (CoinDesk)

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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