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Research shows: Betting platforms may predict corporate earnings more accurately than Wall Street analysts

Research shows: Betting platforms may predict corporate earnings more accurately than Wall Street analysts

华尔街见闻华尔街见闻2026/04/16 17:37
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The latest research shows that anonymous bettors on Polymarket may be able to compete with them. A report from Wolfe Research indicates that when Polymarket users bet that a company's earnings performance may fall short of expectations, the probability of this bet coming true is 44%, more than twice the historical benchmark of 18%. When bettors are very optimistic that a company's earnings will exceed expectations, the probability of this happening is as high as 90%, surpassing the conventional level of 81%. Expand
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