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Nomura: It’s not advisable to short U.S. stocks against the trend for now, but two key signals may indicate a market turning point.

Nomura: It’s not advisable to short U.S. stocks against the trend for now, but two key signals may indicate a market turning point.

格隆汇格隆汇2026/04/17 05:35
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```htmlGolden Ten Data April 17|As the S&P 500 Index continues to rise for several days and hits new highs, Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott advises that it is not advisable to short against the trend at this time. However, he warns that there are two key signals that may indicate this rally is nearing its end. Firstly, if a real energy supply bottleneck emerges starting in May—such as supply shocks caused by shortages of crude oil and petrochemical products—the subsequent surge in commodity prices may force central banks to panic and accelerate tightening of monetary policy. This could lead to the second warning: a wave of bond market sell-offs. Energy shortages and fears of rate hikes may trigger a global negative growth shock, possibly pushing major economies into recession. Once bond yields start to rise, market confidence may be shaken, potentially ending the current buying momentum. Regarding investment strategies, McElligott points out that unless there is a clear weakening in the bond market or market sentiment returns to extreme greed and FOMO, it is currently inappropriate to short stocks or chase prices aggressively. He adds that market positions are still in the rebuilding phase, and there is still some distance from an overcrowded or overheated state.```
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