Fed’s Waller: Will closely watch jobs data for growing signs of stress

Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve (Fed), speaks about the economic outlook and monetary policy at Auburn University in Alabama on Friday. He stated that the break-even rate for the job market is currently likely around zero.

Key quotes:

As the longer Middle East war remains unresolved, inflation and job risks increase.

Job market break even rate now probably around zero.

Will closely watch jobs data for growing signs of stress.

Changes to job market make it challenging to analyze at present.

Periods of negative job growth might not indicate recession.

After a series of shocks, it becomes harder to look through inflation jump.

If quick resolution to war, can look through energy price shock.

Will be closely observing how inflation expectations respond to conflict.

Markets seemed to have undervalued risk of prolonged conflict.

Potential energy price surge could have lasting inflation impact.

March headline PCE inflation likely to hit 3.5% YoY.”