Goldman Sachs: Cooling Demand and Supply Uncertainties Create Two-Sided Risks for Oil Prices Outlook in 2026
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The bank maintains its forecasts for Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil in 2026 at $83 and $78 per barrel respectively, provided that oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually return to normal by mid-May. Although transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly reduced, Goldman Sachs stated that if the supply from the Persian Gulf recovers faster than expected, supported by lower-than-expected production stoppages and adequate regional storage capacity, the downside risk to oil prices has increased. Goldman Sachs stated that due to high refined oil prices and profit margins, oil demand has weakened significantly—especially for petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel—which could lead to further decreases in oil prices. Goldman Sachs stated that preliminary estimates show that the decline in global demand at the beginning of 2026 has exceeded the levels during the sharp oil price surges of 2011 and 2022.
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