S&P Global lowers 2026 oil demand forecast due to Iran conflict, with a downward adjustment of 700,000 barrels per day

The global growth rate of oil demand will narrow to 400,000 barrels per day, compared to a pre-war expectation of 1.1 million barrels per day. In the second quarter of this year, oil demand in the Middle East and Asia will decline significantly. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 40% of the world's refining capacity—amounting to 178 refineries—has been disrupted. Countries such as Japan and South Korea have released large-scale strategic oil reserves to ease fuel shortages, which has limited the increase in Brent spot crude prices. Diesel and aviation fuel have experienced the most significant price shocks.