DWS: The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in April, but with a hawkish stance

格隆汇2026/04/24 09:25

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Golden Finance April 24 | DWS Chief US Economist Christian Scherrmann stated that the geopolitical conflict in Iran has quickly shown initial signs in economic data. The overall CPI annual growth in March surged by nearly one percentage point, reaching 3.3%, while consumer confidence dropped to a historic low. Core inflation has not shown signs of being affected by energy prices, and long-term inflation expectations may remain stable. The current situation prompted the Federal Reserve to ignore market turmoil and keep interest rates unchanged at the April FOMC meeting. However, to ensure that inflation expectations remain controlled, this move will inevitably be accompanied by a hawkish stance.

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Deutsche Bank points out that as central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan are tightening policy simultaneously, the market may still be underpricing the eventual terminal rates. With oil prices remaining high, inflation may spill over into core inflation and wages. Moreover, financial conditions have not tightened in tandem, which could weaken the effect of rate hikes. Citing the experience of 2022, Deutsche Bank notes that the market then expected a total of around 200 basis points of Fed rate hikes in the first year, but the final figure exceeded 400 basis points, illustrating that the market often underestimates the terminal rate.

华尔街见闻•2026/09/21 16:11