Everbright Futures 0427 Gold Commentary: Geopolitical and Policy Factors Exert Dual Pressure Before the Holiday, Gold Price Continues to Fluctuate
Overall, COMEX gold is seeing narrow fluctuations and, as of writing, is relatively stable, with the market sentiment turning more cautious.
In terms of geopolitics, the standoff between the US and Iran continues. After the ceasefire agreement expired on April 22, the outlook for further negotiations has not improved. The US has announced it will push for a second round of talks while at the same time continuing to issue signals of military threats. On the other hand, Iran has refused to participate in the new round of consultations and has further tightened control over the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Israel has stated that its military action against Iran is "not over yet." All in all, the Middle East situation remains in a state of confrontation, but the market's marginal reaction to geopolitical risks has weakened.
On the policy side, the Federal Reserve will hold its April FOMC meeting this week, and the market generally expects rates to remain unchanged. According to CME FedWatch data, expectations for rate cuts within this year have already been compressed to less than one. Compared to the decision itself, the market pays more attention to statements about inflation and the policy path in the post-meeting communiqué, which will provide direction for gold in the short term.
In summary, gold prices face dual pressures from the geopolitical stalemate and policy tightening expectations before the holiday, limiting short-term upward potential. However, geopolitical issues themselves and the potential risk of stagflation still give gold medium- to long-term allocation value. With the domestic May Day holiday approaching, investors are advised to control their positions, keep a light position during the break, and wait for a clearer direction after the holiday to enter the market.
Source: Everbright Futures Research Institute
Author: Yao Tao
Practicing Qualification: F3082336
Trading Consulting Qualification: Z0018553
Editor: Zhu Henan
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
AI demand drives TSMC to accelerate capacity expansion, 2nm monthly production aims for 120,000 wafers by year-end
According to reports, industry giants such as Apple, Nvidia, and AMD have collectively increased their orders by 10% to 20%, directly boosting TSMC's 2nm monthly production capacity to 120,000 wafers by the end of the year, which exceeds the previous estimate by more than 20% and brings forward the 2027 target by two years. For the first time in history, five factories will ramp up production simultaneously, and the annual compound growth rate of capacity from 2026 to 2028 will reach as high as 70%.
Long-term US Treasury Sell-off Continues! 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks 5.2% Again, “AI Boom vs. Rising Financing Costs” Narrative Showdown Intensifies
On Monday, oil prices rose and US Treasury bonds were sold off again as former US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, heightening concerns about inflation.
Banks Have Been Earning Effortlessly from Idle Funds for Years—Will AI Agents Change Everything?
For years, banks have profited from customers' idle funds, but AI agents may be about to change this situation.
Goldman Sachs: US stocks are showing a "strong index, weak confidence" pattern; catch-up rally may become the main theme of the next phase
Goldman Sachs stated that the current U.S. stock market is showing an unusual pattern: while index performance is strong, investor confidence remains weak. This suggests that the market still has further upside potential, and stocks that previously lagged behind leading AI stocks may soon experience a catch-up rally.
Crypto prices
More
