Caixin Futures: Crude oil and methanol show strong volatility, glass and soda ash fluctuate, caustic soda remains weak
- Crude Oil: Recently, uncertainty in US-Iran negotiations has further intensified, with both sides increasing harsh rhetoric and negotiating more aggressively. According to reports, Iran has proposed a new plan stating that if the US lifts the maritime blockade, establishes a new legal framework for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and guarantees no further military action against Iran, the conflict can be ended. Trump claims Iran cannot reach a consensus. Geopolitical factors are once again impacting the market, with short-term expectations for continued strong and volatile movement; it is recommended to buy on dips, but for the medium term, further clarity on news is needed. However, considering the uncertainties around overseas markets opening during the holiday period, investors are advised to keep light positions during the holidays and reduce holdings before the holiday.
- Glass: On the supply side, the industry's daily melting capacity remains at a stage low of 144,900 tons, but a recent increase in furnace restarts signals a slight capacity recovery. The demand side remains sluggish, and market performance is weak. As the May Day holiday approaches, there are no signs of concentrated stockpiling downstream, and stocking sentiment remains cautious. Overall, glass faces low supply but a marginal rebound, insufficient demand follow-up, and high inventory pressure in the mid- and upstream segments. In the short term, low valuations and bottoming patterns in glass futures are expected to persist with no catalyst for price increases. It is advisable to hold light positions or stay on the sidelines. After the holiday, focus on changes in capacity, the strength of production and sales recovery, and the pace of inventory reduction in the midstream.
- Soda Ash: On the supply side, the operating rate of the soda ash industry remains high, with capacity utilization around 85% in April. Some enterprises increasing their load have stabilized and slightly increased supply. The capacity from previous expansions has not yet been digested, leading to strong shipment willingness among producers and spot prices lacking upward momentum. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction in the soda ash market has not been fundamentally resolved. Before the holiday, prices may continue to fluctuate within a low range, and wide-ranging volatility is expected. It is suggested to keep light positions or observe from the sidelines during the holiday.
- Caustic Soda: Since April, the caustic soda market has returned to basic fundamentals, with speculative export activity gradually fading and prices of high-concentration caustic soda declining. Inventory levels remain elevated, with sample companies' factory inventory capacity ratios at high levels; inventory pressure persists and is significantly higher year-on-year. The fundamentally weak market structure remains unchanged. Overall, prices before the holiday are likely to fluctuate weakly. Considering ongoing geopolitical and policy risks during the holiday, it is recommended to maintain light positions.
- Methanol: On the supply side, domestic methanol industry profits are satisfactory, but some facility maintenance has led to a slight week-on-week decrease in operating rates. Overseas, ongoing instability in the Middle East keeps many Iranian facilities shut down, with ongoing declines in imports, and May is expected to see further reductions with port inventories in a de-stocking trend. On the demand side, there is still some short-term support. Overall, with overseas supply from the Middle East contracting and de-stocking expectations, market prices hold some support. Given the increase in US-Israel geopolitical rhetoric, risk premiums could recover, and it is suitable to hold light long positions. During the holiday period, investors are advised to act cautiously and maintain light positions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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