Everbright Futures 0430 Gold Review: Surging Oil Prices and Fed Hold Steady, Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure

On April 29, COMEX gold fluctuated downward and stabilized at the close, closing at $4557.3/oz, down 1.11%. The domestic SHFE gold night session opened lower and fluctuated, closing at 1003.66 yuan/gram, down 0.83%.

On Wednesday, April 29 local time, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision and kept rates unchanged as expected. Fed Governor Milan called for a rate cut; additionally, three other voting members opposed, not supporting the FOMC statement's dovish bias. After the Fed statement was released, facing the biggest policy disagreement within the Fed in 34 years, U.S. Treasuries, stocks, and gold all fell. However, in his final press conference as Chair, Jerome Powell struck a neutral-to-dovish tone, with gold rebounding from the intraday low.

On the geopolitical front, the Hormuz standoff is evolving from a short-term shock into a durable repricing. Trump claimed that a blockade is "more effective than bombing" and rejected Iran’s three-stage negotiation proposal. Brent crude rose for eight consecutive days, approaching $122 and hitting a two-year high; the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above 5%, and U.S. gasoline prices reached new highs since the start of the war. The market is no longer betting on a sudden reopening of the Strait but is pricing in “months of lockdown”; Iran’s parliamentary speaker stated the next move for oil prices is $140. Against a backdrop of energy shortages, inflation expectations and pressures to sell Treasuries intensified, weighing on gold prices. The environment is quite unfavorable for gold, and investors should prioritize risk control, avoid holding high unilateral positions during the sensitive U.S.-Iran period, and hold only light positions during holidays.

Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute

Writer: Shi Yueming

Practicing Qualification: F03097365

Trading Consulting Qualification: Z0017563

Editor: Zhu Henan