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Breaking: USD/INR hits record highs amid spike in oil prices, Fed’s hawkish hold

Breaking: USD/INR hits record highs amid spike in oil prices, Fed’s hawkish hold

FXStreetFXStreet2026/04/30 06:09
By:FXStreet

The Indian Rupee (INR) plunges to record lows against the US Dollar (USD) at open on Thursday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 95.35 as oil prices rally due to continued United States (US) blockade of Iranian sea ports and a further recovery in the US Dollar (USD), following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

At the press time, the WTI Oil price trades almost 1% higher at around $107.00, the highest level seen in over seven weeks.

Trump vows to prolong blockade on Iran

On late Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced that he has rejected the recent peace proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for almost 20% of global energy supply whose closure has prompted the supply crisis and has boosted oil prices, which could have delayed negotiations regarding Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

US President Trump said that Washington will continue the naval blockade of Iran until he secures a deal with Tehran to address the country’s nuclear program.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

US Dollar rises as some Fed members stress to shift from easing bias

The US Dollar extends its winning streak for the third trading day on Thursday, partly driven by risk-off sentiment and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the “number of officials who would support a move away from an easing bias has increased”.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.10.

On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, with an 8-4 majority. One member dissented in favor of a rate cut, while three dissented against the inclusion of an easing bias, according to the monetary policy statement.

In the press conference, Fed Chair Powell warned that the central bank is vigilant to “risks on both sides of our mandate”, adding, “Developments in the Middle East are contributing to uncertainty.”

Technical Analysis: USD/INR hits fresh highs around 95.35

USD/INR rallies to near 95.35 on Thursday, the lifetime highest level. The pair holds a firm bullish bias as spot remains well above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.83, keeping the short-term uptrend intact.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 67, indicating strong but not yet extreme upside momentum, which suggests buyers still retain control, though the risk of overextension is building.

On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 20-EMA around 93.83, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract dip buyers and maintain the broader advance while it holds. A daily close below this dynamic floor would hint at fading upside pressure and open the door to a more extended correction toward prior price congestion levels not yet tested in the current leg. Looking up, the price has entered uncharted territory and will likely extend its rally towards 96.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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