JPMorgan's commodity team recently released an analysis warning about the current state of global crude oil inventories: On the surface, the world holds 8.4 billion barrels of inventory, appearing plentiful; however, stripping away this number, only about 800 million barrels can actually be used without triggering systemic pressure.

JPMorgan's commodity team recently released an analysis warning about the current state of global crude oil inventories: On the surface, the world holds 8.4 billion barrels of inventory, appearing plentiful; however, stripping away this number, only about 800 million barrels can actually be used without triggering systemic pressure.

老虎证券2026/05/01 08:55

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More crucial is the timeline. JPMorgan estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the OECD commercial inventories will reach the "minimum operating level" by September this year—by then, the oil distribution system will not only be "tight," but will face a substantial risk of operational failure. At that point, the world may have no other choice, and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened "no matter what."

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