When AI Begins to "Take Over Jobs": Has the Turning Point in the Job Market Already Arrived?

On April 19, the humanoid robot marathon in Beijing Yizhuang showcased a highly symbolic window into the current state of technological progress. Compared to last year, robots of the same type have made significant improvements in movement stability, adaptability to complex environments, and the ability to perform tasks continuously. In just one year, technological iteration has accelerated remarkably, and humanoid robots are moving from demonstrative technology toward being a productive element. The rapid iteration of robots and AI may impact the labor market at a speed far exceeding previous expectations.

Since the launch of ChatGPT, AI capabilities have shown exponential growth and have been rapidly integrated into enterprise production processes, evolving from initial auxiliary tools to process automation and even partial decision-making replacement. At the enterprise level, AI adoption has shifted from pilot applications to system-wide deployments. Although AI's disruption of the workforce is currently more significant on a micro than a macro level, its impact is beginning to spread from efficiency improvements to the employment stage.

Data already shows a glimpse of this impact. For example, in the United States, positions with high AI exposure have seen a noticeable decline in employment numbers, with certain technical posts dropping by more than 10%. Entry-level positions, which form the base of the career ladder, are the first to be replaced. The unemployment rate for young workers aged 22-27 in high-exposure occupations has increased by 1.1 percentage points since 2023, while in low-exposure occupations, it has only risen by 0.2 percentage points.

Labor Market: From Cyclical Fluctuations to Structural Shocks

If AI adoption enters an exponential expansion phase, the labor market will no longer only exhibit cyclical fluctuations but will enter a more intense stage of structural reconfiguration.

In the short term, AI will mainly increase frictional unemployment by replacing certain tasks. Displaced workers will require time to be redeployed to new positions, thereby pushing up the short-term unemployment rate. This impact will be most pronounced among young people and entry-level positions, as these jobs are often highly standardized, routine, and easily replaceable.