GF Securities: Energy, communication services, and cash flow-stable assets still have relative advantages

However, as core disagreements such as the Iran nuclear issue, sanction relief, and port blockades remain unresolved, crude oil will continue to be a key variable for global inflation and risk appetite. At the same time, the withdrawal of the UAE from OPEC+ indicates a marginal loosening of supply discipline among oil-producing countries, which may limit further unilateral increases in oil prices. For interest rates, if oil prices and tariffs continue to drive up cost-push inflation, the window for the Federal Reserve to cut rates will be delayed, the downward space for US Treasury yields will be limited, and the expansion of global equity valuations will also be constrained. Structurally, energy, communication services, and assets with stable cash flows will continue to have relative advantages.