QCP: BTC returns above $80,000, but the options market has not confirmed a breakout

According to a market analysis released by QCP, after Trump suspended the “Project Freedom” operation, geopolitical risk premiums retreated, oil prices declined, US stocks rose, and the US dollar weakened. BTC climbed back above $80,000, viewed as a high-beta asset performance amid improving liquidity, a softer dollar, and a rebound in risk appetite. However, the options market has yet to confirm a full breakout, with one-month at-the-money implied volatility around 41% and the 30-day risk reversal still showing elevated downside protection at roughly minus 5.5 volatility. QCP warns that the Japanese market, due to the weakening yen and rising Japanese government bond yields, could pose marginal tightening of global liquidity. BTC needs to decisively break above the $82,000 to $83,000 range.