The probability of the "S&P 500 Index reaching 8,000 by the end of June" on Polymarket is currently reported at 10%.

According to monitoring by Odaily Seer channel, as the S&P 500 index broke through 7,400 points to reach a record high, the probability on Polymarket that the "S&P 500 index will reach 8,000 points by the end of June" is currently reported at 10%; the probability that the "S&P 500 index will break through 7,700 points by the end of June" is currently reported at 31%.

The event resolution rule is: If at any time between the creation of the market and market close on the final trading day of June 2026, any 1-minute candle of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) shows a final "high" price equal to or higher than the target price, the market will resolve as "Yes". Otherwise, the market will resolve as "No".

As shown by the 1-minute interval ("1m") data on Yahoo Finance, all prices recorded during regular trading hours on the instrument's primary exchange will be considered.

Time periods when the market is officially closed (such as holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.

All referenced times are local to the primary exchange for index trading.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance—specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

Odaily Seer channel continues to closely monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.