CITIC Securities: Low Risk of Secondary Inflation in the U.S., but High Oil Prices Will Limit Inflation Rate Decline This Year
On May 13, CITIC Securities reported that U.S. inflation remained elevated in April, with ongoing spillover effects from the Middle East conflict and a compensatory rise in rental inflation pushing up core readings. High inflation continues to erode the real purchasing power of American households, with low-income families facing a stronger cost shock, leading to a return to negative growth in real hourly wages for the first time in three years. We believe the risk of secondary inflation in the U.S. is low, but high oil prices will constrain the room for inflation rate decline this year. Under the baseline scenario, we still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this year. Currently, U.S. Treasuries are more suitable for trading opportunities, while U.S. stocks may face short-term risks of profit-taking as the strong earnings season approaches its end. The U.S. dollar index may experience weak fluctuations below 100 but is not expected to decline continuously.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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