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Market Update: Technical Indicators Remain Bullish, But Market Sentiment Has Entered a Winter Phase

Market Update: Technical Indicators Remain Bullish, But Market Sentiment Has Entered a Winter Phase

AiCoinAiCoin2026/05/13 01:44
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The current BTC adjustment is more akin to a high-level liquidity rebalancing rather than a trend reversal. The market is undergoing a typical cycle of “risk appetite cooling—chip redistribution.” Structurally, the weekly bull market support zone (21-week EMA/20-week SMA) remains intact. After BTC retreated from the 82,800 USDT high, the overall decline is still within the normal correction range of previous bull market cycles. On a trend level, the mid-term bullish structure continues to exist. As for sentiment indicators, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to around 42, indicating a significant decrease in market risk preference. Generally speaking, when sentiment cools faster than price pullback, it means leverage funds are being passively cleared, while medium- and long-term funds start to reassess the risk-reward ratio. On-chain data shows that market liquidity hasn’t truly dried up. Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), on-chain activity, and trading volume remain relatively high, suggesting that capital inside the market is more in an observation and reallocation phase, rather than systemic exit. On the macro level, the market has recently been trading in advance based on expectations of future Federal Reserve policy changes. For risk assets, what truly determines the valuation anchor is always the direction of US dollar liquidity, not short-term sentiment fluctuations themselves.Short-term trading structureCurrently, BTC mainly operates within the 80,000—82,000 USDT range:80,000 USDT: Supported by the round number threshold79,050 USDT: Close to EMA120 and a strong stage support zone78,675 USDT: Stop-loss position for failed bullish structureOn the upside to watch:81,300 USDT: Stage selling pressure zone81,950—82,000 USDT: Key resistance band82,325 USDT: Reference point for short position stop-lossMicroscopically:The daily chart sees more long upper and lower shadows, reflecting wider capital disagreement;4-hour level maintains strong volatility but has not yet achieved an effective breakout;Trading volume keeps decreasing, implying new incremental funds are still waiting for a directional confirmation.Therefore, the market is more likely to be in a “high-level consolidation digesting valuation” phase. If a breakout with volume occurs above 82,000 in the future, it means risk appetite is expanding again; conversely, if momentum remains insufficient, the market will likely continue range-bound consolidation and repeated shakeouts.For traders, the most important thing at present is not forecasting short-term fluctuations, but maintaining position flexibility and liquidity management skills.
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