USD/JPY Price Forecast: Buyers defend 100-day SMA after intervention-driven volatility
USD/JPY trades with a mild upside bias on Wednesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising Oil prices linked to the Middle East war, given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy.
At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 157.87, up for a third consecutive day. The US Dollar is drawing support from hotter-than-expected US inflation data, which boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates by year-end, while persistent uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations to end the war is driving safe-haven flows into the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.50, its highest level in more than a week.
From a technical perspective, buyers are gradually returning after the recent suspected intervention-driven sell-off triggered near the 160.00 psychological level.
USD/JPY trades at 157.85, holding a constructive bias as it remains above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at roughly 157.40 and the 200-day SMA near 154.47.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has rebounded toward 48 after recently dipping toward oversold territory, suggesting bearish momentum is easing but still lacking strong bullish conviction.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, though the histogram is beginning to stabilize and the MACD line is attempting to turn higher, indicating downside pressure may be fading after the recent sell-off.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 158.00, where a horizontal barrier caps immediate advances, ahead of a more significant ceiling near 160.73 that guards the recent highs.
On the downside, the 100-day SMA at 157.40 offers the first layer of support, with the 200-day SMA around 154.47 providing a deeper structural floor if selling pressure extends.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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