4 smart money bet $11,800 on "No" for "Will Iran close its airspace by May 21st"
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart contracts have placed a total of $11.8k on "Will Iran close its airspace by May 21?", with an average buy-in probability of 88.2%. Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 13.5%.
Donald Trump released a new visual deterrent signal on Truth Social: he first posted a warning to Iran saying "time is ticking, they better act fast, or they will have nothing left," followed by a map of the Middle East covered by the U.S. flag with a red arrow pointing towards Iran, but without further explanation. Consequently, in the past two days, some TikTok and other platform influencers have started hyping up the possibility of "Iran potentially closing its airspace."
Today, AP reported that the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE was attacked by drones and caught fire, with the UAE calling it an "unjustified terrorist attack," but no casualties or radiation leaks were reported. Both the U.S. and Iran have sent signals indicating a possible return to hostilities. This suggests that the risk in the Middle East airspace is indeed increasing, but today's actual event involved drones in the Gulf and nuclear facility security, not directly related to a comprehensive Iranian airspace closure.
Axios reported today that Trump is expected to convene a high-level national security team in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss military options against Iran. Trump also stated that if Iran does not present a better plan, the U.S. will "hit Iran harder than ever before." However, based on current public news, Trump seems to be mainly applying maximum pressure tactics in the U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event, as they may have set stop-loss or take-profit limits after opening their positions.
Accounts:
0x09a5d3b75f908d780f2070ac270eabd6cf83caaa;
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee;
0x836ffd95ef3cf3c7987612279b2152b11ce6906e;
0x69ea0d77ef34f1acb03aaed901df7620fc4215cd.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Bridgewater: Most AI infrastructure trades are already priced in, only holding a "very small position"
Bridgewater CIO Greg Jensen warns that assets related to AI infrastructure have already been significantly priced in by the market, and the excess return opportunities of two years ago are fading. The fund has reduced its positions to a "very minimal" level. According to system modeling through 2028, the upside potential for assets such as chips and data centers is now very limited and faces risks of financing and construction delays. Bridgewater's strategic focus has shifted to AI disruption and application sectors.
Swiss Franc gains ground as easing US Yields pressures Greenback
Korean media: Delivery times for key semiconductor equipment components have more than doubled
According to reports, there is a severe shortage of core components for semiconductor equipment in South Korea. Delivery cycles have generally doubled, and waiting times for some Japanese-made parts are as long as 40 months, with components unavailable even at a premium price. Japanese suppliers are cautious about expanding production capacity, resulting in serious delays that have impacted downstream businesses. Major construction projects like Samsung’s Pyeongtaek and SK Hynix’s Yongin face the risk of postponement, with AI chip expansion plans running into a “hard wall” in the supply chain.
Crypto prices
More
