War Drives Up European Energy Prices, UK Household Energy Bill Cap May Rise by 13% This Summer
According to Golden Ten Data on May 19, due to the war in Iran driving up energy costs, the UK's household energy bill cap is expected to rise by 13% this summer, marking the largest increase since 2023 and further intensifying inflationary pressures. Energy consultancy Cornwall Insight Ltd. stated that the energy price cap, which limits how much suppliers can charge typical households, is expected to be increased to £1,850 (approximately $2,479) annually starting in July. Although these figures are estimates, they are usually very close to those published by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem). Ofgem resets the cap every three months, with the next adjustment coming into effect on July 1 and the calculation window having closed on Monday.
This increase reflects the significant rise in European energy prices since the outbreak of the war in Iran at the end of February and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. UK next-month natural gas futures have surged by about 50%, and electricity futures have risen by roughly one third. The rising energy bills will make it even more challenging for the Bank of England to combat inflation. Previously, the market expected inflation to fall back to the 2% target, paving the way for rate cuts, but high energy prices could spark a new round of cost-of-living crises, making that outlook increasingly unattainable.
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