When the market begins to discuss “rate hikes,” BTC and oil prices are synchronously becoming the core global risk sentiment indicators
BlockBeats News, May 21st. The market has begun to re-acknowledge the reality that "high interest rates may be extended again or even increased." The latest FOMC meeting minutes show that the Fed's internal consensus on maintaining an accommodative stance has rapidly waned. Several officials have started to believe that if inflation remains above target, there is a possibility of tightening policy again. The market has also adjusted its expectations accordingly, with federal funds rate futures now reflecting the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the year.
The core reason behind this is still the ongoing impact of the Middle East conflict on energy and the global supply chain. Although Trump has stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations are nearing the final stage, the divergence between the U.S. and Israel on the "whether to continue to strike Iran" issue is widening. Trump is inclined to end the conflict through an agreement, while Netanyahu still hopes to further weaken Iran's military and nuclear capabilities. The market is concerned that even if negotiations make temporary progress, as long as the Strait of Hormuz cannot fully resume normal operations, it will be difficult to truly ease oil prices and shipping risks.
At the same time, the U.S. energy market itself is beginning to face structural pressures. As refineries shift massively to high-profit aviation kerosene production, U.S. gasoline inventories are rapidly declining. Energy costs have gradually transmitted from the crude oil end to end-consumer consumption and the financial market. This is also one of the key reasons for the continuous rise in long-term U.S. bond yields recently, representing the market's reevaluation of the risk of "high energy prices + high interest rates" possibly coexisting in the long term.
Regarding the crypto market, BTC's short-term is still maintaining a high-level oscillation but is now significantly influenced by macro interest rates and risk sentiment. Looking at the liquidation heat map, there is a significant concentration of short-side liquidity around $78,000 to $78,300, and the market is still testing upper resistance from short positions. The $75,400 to $75,800 range below is the main long liquidation area. At this stage, BTC is not just a crypto asset but is gradually becoming a synchronous indicator of global liquidity and risk preference. Once again, if the situation in the Middle East or U.S. bond yields spiral out of control, market volatility may quickly escalate.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Finland schedules a treasury bill auction of up to 2 billions euros on October 13.
Finnish Ministry of Finance: Finland will hold an auction of euro-denominated Treasury bills on October 13, with a maximum auction amount of 2 billions euros.
The European Union may need to reduce natural gas demand by 7% this winter, as low gas storage and the Russian LNG ban increase pressure.
(1) The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) stated that the EU may need to reduce its natural gas demand by 7% year-on-year this winter. (2) Currently, gas storage inventories are low, and as the heating season starts, the region's energy risk resistance capabilities decrease. (3) Europe's natural gas storage facility capacity is only slightly above 73%, far below the usual level of 88% for the same period in previous years. (4) The EU's complete ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas, starting from January next year, will further increase this pressure. (5) IEEFA estimates that if demand is not reduced and the storage gap is filled by additional natural gas imports instead, the cost would reach 3 billions euros. (6) Due to the Iran conflict driving global natural gas prices higher, this procurement cost is 12% higher than similar-scale purchases in 2025. (7) IEEFA pointed out that, therefore, “increased reliance on storage facilities” has become a significant “financial burden” for Europe.
Amid market volatility, Nvidia-backed Firmus withdraws major IPO
(1) Firmus, an Australian AI data center operator backed by Nvidia, has withdrawn its planned major initial public offering (IPO) due to market volatility and conditions, according to a statement the company sent to CNBC. (2) Firmus stated that its board determined the proposed offering terms did not adequately reflect its business strength and long-term growth prospects. (3) The statement said, "Therefore, the board has concluded that proceeding with this offering is not in the best interests of the company and its shareholders." Firmus added that it will now seek capital from the private market and consider other public and private market options. (4) Reportedly, Firmus had planned to raise 5 billions USD in the IPO, pricing shares at 11 AUD each, which would have made it the second-largest new share issue in Australian history. The IPO valued the company at approximately 30.6 billions USD. (5) In August, the company announced a 2 billions USD financing round, backed by Nvidia, Coatue Management, Blackstone, and Jane Street, bringing its total equity raised in the past year to over 3 billions USD, with a valuation exceeding 10.5 billions USD. (6) Last month, Firmus also announced an agreement with Meta to provide GPU computing power in its Southeast Asian AI data centers. These centers are built on Nvidia's DSX platform to support Meta's AI research, model development, and training.
India accelerates coal supply to power plants in October
Indian government: Coal supply to power plants accelerated in October.
Crypto prices
More
