Iran war sparks an extremely bearish scenario for Asian currencies and bonds

金十2026/05/21 04:17

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Golden Ten Data reported on May 21 that the Iran war is putting pressure on emerging Asian markets, pushing some currencies and bond yields to levels once considered unlikely. As the conflict continues, some analysts are drawing more extreme bearish scenarios, including the Indian rupee depreciating to 100 against the US dollar, the Indonesian rupiah falling to 18,000, and the Philippine peso devaluing to 65, as high energy prices exacerbate inflation and hit import-dependent economies. The bond market is also feeling the pressure. Benchmark yields in India may test the highs seen in 2022, while the head of the Philippine Money Market Association said yields could climb to a multi-year high of 8%.

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Goldman Sachs believes that the rapid rise in real interest rates has exerted more direct pressure on the US stock market, with rate-sensitive sectors such as small-cap and financial stocks being particularly affected. On the liquidity front, Goldman Sachs estimates that pension funds may sell around $3.3 billions in equities at the end of the month and quarter, and that CTAs may sell about $530 million worth of Russell 2000 index futures in the coming week. For the market, unless the issues of oil and interest rates are resolved, the AI narrative is "almost irrelevant."

华尔街见闻•2026/09/30 04:01

USD/JPY falls below 157! The yen becomes the strongest G-10 currency, with the market betting on another rate hike by the central bank next month.

On Wednesday, the yen strengthened against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY rate falling below the 157 mark, as repeated warnings from the Japanese government regarding exchange rates and end-of-quarter capital flows provided support for the yen.

智通财经•2026/09/30 03:41