New Bitcoin Lows? Analysts Say Chances Are 'Extremely Slim'

Binance pool miner reserves slipped from 41,987 to 41,915 in May, a small but telling sign that selling pressure from miners has not fully stopped. Crypto analysts said that because Binance Pool controls a major share of global hash rate, its behavior tends to reflect how Bitcoin miners feel before the broader market catches on.

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The Miner Position Index remains below historical panic-selling levels, and the Puell Multiple — a gauge of miner revenue relative to long-term averages — is still under one. Analysts described the current miner behavior as a “wait phase,” a pattern that has appeared near cycle bottoms before.

Long-Term Holders Take Over The Supply Side

More than 70% of all circulating Bitcoin is now sitting in the hands of investors who have held for at least a year. That figure crossed back above 15 million BTC for the first time since October 2025, according to data from CryptoQuant.

🚨 $BTC Long Term Holders Just Flashed The Signal That Preceded Every Major Expansion Phase Since 2012.#Bitcoin The 1Y+ Long Term Holder metric has now dropped back into the historical “oversold” accumulation zone, a region that previously appeared before explosive upside… pic.twitter.com/9ZHwKFJRm9

— CryptoZeno (@CrypZeno) May 20, 2026

Analyst CryptoZeno said the one-year-plus holder metric has returned to a zone that, in past cycles, came just before major price climbs. Based on reports citing CryptoZeno’s analysis, similar readings appeared ahead of upside moves in 2013, 2016, 2019, and late 2022. When these holders are buying instead of selling, available supply tightens — and historically, that has not been a good time to bet on lower prices.

A Key Technical Signal Flips Bullish

The weekly Relative Strength Index for Bitcoin retested the 50 level this week, triggering a bullish read from crypto analyst Sykodelic. That retest came 105 days after Bitcoin’s weekly RSI fell into oversold territory — only the fourth time that has happened on record.

Sykodelic noted that three of those four instances led to long-term price expansion. The one exception was 2022, when the FTX collapse dragged the market to new lows after an initial recovery attempt, and the RSI never managed to reclaim the 50 level during that move. This time, it did.

The chance of new lows has become extremely slim.

It has now been 105 days since the cycle low, in which the 1W RSI entered oversold…

Only for the 4th time ever.

The only time Bitcoin made new lows after 105 days after the bottom was in the last cycle.

However, the RSI had… pic.twitter.com/ej7vReV8H6

— Sykodelic 🔪 (@Sykodelic_) May 20, 2026

Odds Of A Drop Below $60,000 Called ‘Extremely Slim’

Taken together, analysts say the data points away from a fresh breakdown. The combination of long-term holders accumulating near historical lows, a technical indicator flipping positive for the first time since February, and miner behavior consistent with past bottoms has analysts broadly aligned on one view.

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The odds of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 again, Sykodelic said, have become extremely slim.

Whether that confidence holds will depend on whether the market can avoid the kind of external shock — like a major exchange failure — that broke the pattern in 2022.

Featured image from Yellow, chart from TradingView