thecryptobasic.com 
$XRP may be headed for another major correction phase in 2026 if historical price behavior repeats.
Crypto analyst ChartNerd called attention to this possibility in a post on X, pointing to $XRP’s long-term Gaussian Channel structure.
He argued that $XRP has historically revisited the middle regression band of the Gaussian Channel after extended rallies. According to him, a similar move could emerge again sometime next year.
Notably, this observation comes as $XRP trades at $1.31, with growing risk of falling back into the $1.20 range.
Key Points
- Analyst ChartNerd says $XRP could revisit key Gaussian Channel support levels sometime in 2026.
- $XRP has historically pulled back to its middle trend band after major rallies, according to the analyst.
- $XRP dropped 4% to $1.31 as broader crypto market weakness triggered fear-driven selling pressure.
- ChartNerd believes $XRP could revisit $0.70 before potentially starting a move toward double-digit prices.
Analyst Points to Historical Gaussian Channel Pattern
ChartNerd shared a long-term $XRP chart highlighting multiple instances where the asset eventually returned to the channel’s middle regression band following overheated price expansions.
The chart marks previous cycle tops with red circles, followed by pullbacks toward the green middle regression band, which the analyst described as $XRP “coming home” to support levels after euphoric rallies.
According to the analyst:
“History tells us that at some point in 2026, $XRP will more than likely come home to the middle regression band of the Gaussian Channel.”
The projected move would imply $XRP eventually retracing from elevated levels back toward a historically significant trend support zone. Notably, $XRP price has already dropped over 60% from its $3.65 peak.
$XRP Drops Alongside Broader Crypto Market
The bearish projection comes as $XRP is already facing short-term pressure amid a wider crypto market decline. $XRP has fallen 4% over the past 24 hours to trade around $1.31.
The decline closely tracked Bitcoin’s drop to $74,000, as macro-driven risk aversion triggered a broader sell-off across digital assets.
The total crypto market capitalization also slipped 2.37%, while the CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index dropped to 35, signaling “Fear” among investors.
Rather than being driven by an $XRP-specific catalyst, the latest weakness appears tied to a broader market pullback affecting most major cryptocurrencies.
Breaking a 13-Year Structure
ChartNerd added in a follow-up post that if this cycle is truly “different,” $XRP would need to break the historical pattern that has shaped its market structure for more than 13 years.
He said the monthly Gaussian Channel should continue to be respected as long as the broader cyclical trend remains unchanged.
Long-Term Structure Still in Focus
Ultimately, ChartNerd’s analysis focuses more on $XRP’s broader long-term pattern than on short-term price swings.
Since $XRP is still trading above the middle level, the analyst believes a similar pattern could emerge again as the current cycle develops into 2026.
Notably, ChartNerd expects $XRP to revisit the $0.70 level during the next major downward move. According to his earlier analysis, this dip could mark the bottom before a potential rally toward double-digit price levels.
