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"Safety supervision storm" is approaching: Where will coal prices go? Multiple institutions assess: Beware of a retreat after a spike

"Safety supervision storm" is approaching: Where will coal prices go? Multiple institutions assess: Beware of a retreat after a spike

老虎证券老虎证券2026/05/25 05:11
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According to reports, on May 22, a gas explosion occurred at the Liushen Yu Coal Mine of Shanxi Tongzhou Group in Qin Yuan County, Changzhi City, Shanxi Province. As the Ministry of Emergency Management intervenes and the State Council accident investigation team conducts a rigorous investigation, a “storm” targeting coal mine safety supervision is brewing. As a result, expectations of a tightening in raw coal supply have risen. On May 24, an anonymous coal industry insider told reporters that, based on past experience, this Shanxi mining accident will most likely trigger a major safety inspection across the coal industry. A new round of thorough inspections and rectifications will definitely affect output, but from a safety perspective, some large coal mines cannot be shut down for too long.
New Century Futures reviewed historical data from the past ten years and pointed out that on the day of a major coal mine accident, the probability of coking coal futures rising reaches 85.7%, with an average increase of about 1.59%. The market reacts extremely sensitively to expectations of supply tightening. Research from New Century Futures shows that although major safety incidents can ignite market enthusiasm in the short term, the momentum is very weak. In similar accidents in the past, the probability of coking coal futures prices declining in the month of the accident reached as high as 71.4%, with an average decrease of 6.11%. “Pulse-type rises, followed by a drop within the month” often become the norm.
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