Euro/USD rebound faces resistance, 1.1662 becomes key test for bulls

汇通财经2026/05/25 07:05

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1. Influenced by the market's optimistic expectations regarding the Iran peace agreement, the US dollar has shown a softer trend, while the euro has been boosted. However, as investors as a whole remain cautious, the euro's upward potential against the US dollar is currently limited.2. EUR/USD has rebounded from the 1.1576 low touched last Thursday (the lowest since early April) to as high as 1.1648. However, the high zone formed between May 18 and 19 (around 1.1661-1.1662) is currently capping further gains in the exchange rate.3. For bulls to gain confidence, EUR/USD needs to firmly close above the 55-day moving average (1.1645). Even greater resistance comes from the 200-day moving average (1.1682).4. The implied volatility of FX options remains above the low levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran conflict.5. The risk reversal index is flattening, indicating that as prospects for peace rise, the downside pressure on EUR/USD is easing. Meanwhile, the premium gap between euro call and put options is gradually narrowing.

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