Barclays: The Reserve Bank of India may keep rates unchanged in June

老虎证券2026/05/25 09:55

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They stated that although the Reserve Bank of India may raise its inflation forecast and lower its growth outlook, the bank should ignore inflation rises driven by supply factors. However, the ongoing Middle East conflict has caused energy prices to remain high for an extended period, which could mean a more sustained increase in price pressure. This threatens Barclays’ basic assumption that the Reserve Bank of India will keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026. The bank added that spillover effects on transportation and other raw material costs may eventually require it to raise rates. “A weakening of economic growth will certainly affect any such decision, but at present, we believe an inflation shock is more likely than a growth shock.”

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Goldman Sachs believes that the rapid rise in real interest rates has exerted more direct pressure on the US stock market, with rate-sensitive sectors such as small-cap and financial stocks being particularly affected. On the liquidity front, Goldman Sachs estimates that pension funds may sell around $3.3 billions in equities at the end of the month and quarter, and that CTAs may sell about $530 million worth of Russell 2000 index futures in the coming week. For the market, unless the issues of oil and interest rates are resolved, the AI narrative is "almost irrelevant."

华尔街见闻•2026/09/30 04:01

USD/JPY falls below 157! The yen becomes the strongest G-10 currency, with the market betting on another rate hike by the central bank next month.

On Wednesday, the yen strengthened against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY rate falling below the 157 mark, as repeated warnings from the Japanese government regarding exchange rates and end-of-quarter capital flows provided support for the yen.

智通财经•2026/09/30 03:41