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Rising interest rates increase Japan's government debt pressure, AI bubble still supported by technology, currency appreciation often stems from export improvement --- 0526 Macro Update

Rising interest rates increase Japan's government debt pressure, AI bubble still supported by technology, currency appreciation often stems from export improvement --- 0526 Macro Update

华尔街见闻华尔街见闻2026/05/26 11:20
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By:华尔街见闻
  • The current improvement in Japan's inflation and growth is mainly due to input cost shocks and post-pandemic recovery, rather than being driven by domestic demand. The economy is showing stagflationary tendencies. With a significant rise in interest rates, the growing debt repayment pressure has reduced the likelihood of continued issuance of long-term bonds. The Japanese government has already planned to cut the issuance scale of super long-term government bonds in fiscal year 2026.

  • At present, an AI bubble is apparent but not out of control. The support comes from the transition of Agentic AI from an auxiliary tool to an autonomous execution tool. However, current valuations have already priced in growth expectations for 2027-2028. Amid geopolitical conflicts, AI has defied trends and strengthened, benefiting from a second boom in reasoning computing power and the substantial profits contributed by tech giants.

  • The RMB exchange rate mainly affects the export volume rather than the export value. As the proportion of RMB settlement continues to rise, RMB appreciation will translate to more US dollars, widening the gap between the growth rate of exports calculated in US dollars and RMB. RMB appreciation will also compress foreign trade companies' foreign exchange gains, but companies can hedge against exchange rate risk.

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