West Africa's cocoa faces a brief dry window, mid-term rainfall risk reappears, weather in production regions becomes a key variable

⑴ Institutional meteorological reports indicate that over the past week, the cocoa regions of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana in West Africa experienced heavy rainfall, with the 7-day cumulative precipitation exceeding normal levels by 25 to 100 millimeters. Flooding occurred in western Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, impacting the affected areas. In the coming 15 days, rainfall in Ethiopia's coffee-producing regions is expected to be 15 to 35 millimeters above normal, as precipitation shifts eastward after recently inundating West Africa.⑵ The weather in West Africa is expected to turn dry over the next 5 days, and cocoa regions impacted by floods should obtain dry conditions before early June. This is a positive signal for the damaged production zones. However, humid weather may return to West Africa in mid-June, which warrants close attention as it could cause harm to cocoa pods.⑶ Weather pattern analysis shows that the Madden-Julian Oscillation is forecast to enter Phase 7 in mid-June, which may support cool and humid conditions in West Africa, while South Africa is likely to experience cool and dry weather. In the short term, South African corn harvest is expected to proceed smoothly except for cooler and wetter conditions in eastern Cape.