PCE Inflation Rate Preferred by the Fed Strengthens, Likely to Remain Steady

On May 28, driven by rising energy prices due to the war in Iran, the U.S. inflation rate for April recorded its fastest growth in three years, further solidifying economists' views that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for a long time before next year. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday that the PCE index surged by 3.8% over the 12 months ending in April, marking the largest increase since May 2023. The PCE inflation rate for March was revised to 3.5%. Excluding the more volatile food and energy components, the core PCE price index increased by 3.3% year-on-year in April, compared to a 3.2% rise in March. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE inflation measure as a reference for its 2% inflation target. Financial markets expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% until 2027.