The US-Iran framework agreement approaches as Trump faces dual pressure from hawks and oil prices
- U.S. President Trump faces a dilemma in seeking to end the war with Iran: on one hand, he wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower domestic oil prices; on the other hand, any concession to Tehran may provoke strong opposition from the Iran hawks within his party.
- According to sources familiar with the matter, a framework agreement is in the works, which includes extending the current ceasefire and lifting Iran’s control over the crucial oil shipping lane, but postpones the nuclear issue for later negotiations. If approved, the agreement would be the most significant step toward peace since the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, and could help ease surging energy prices.
- However, influential hawks within the Republican Party (such as Graham and Cruz) are urging Trump to “finish the job” and resume strikes to sever Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Trump countered by saying he is not in a hurry and will accept only a “great” deal.
- Leaked memorandum terms show that the proposed deal sidesteps the most intractable issues, such as the long-term status of the strait, disposal of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, and details of sanction relief. Critics argue that Iran could benefit more, only pledging to continue nuclear talks in the future.
- Analysts point out that Trump is attempting to secure key concessions from Iran while making only limited compromises himself, so the outcome can be portrayed as a victory. But reopening the strait merely restores the pre-war status quo and does not represent a real achievement.
- Trump faces both political and economic pressure: public approval has fallen to a new low, the mid-term elections are approaching, and high oil prices could hurt the Republican Party’s prospects. Iran, meanwhile, is demonstrating greater resilience, capable of enduring military strikes and cutting off a fifth of the world’s oil supply.
- For a president who once promised not to embroil the U.S. in unnecessary wars but has now dragged the nation into conflict, the manner in which he ends this war will determine the legacy of his second-term foreign policy.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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