Italy’s Q1 GDP revised up to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year, with exports surging 2.2% as the main driver
- According to data released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics on Friday, GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, higher than the preliminary figure of 0.2% on April 30; and by 0.8% year-on-year, above the preliminary estimate of 0.7%. The impact of the Iran conflict, which began with the US-Israel airstrike on February 28, is expected to become apparent from Q2 onwards.
- Exports in Q1 jumped by 2.2% compared to Q4 of last year, while imports fell by 0.7%, with net trade contributing 0.9 percentage points to the quarterly growth rate. Consumer spending and investment also increased, but a significant reduction in inventories dragged economic growth down by 1.1 percentage points.
- By the end of Q1, "acquired growth" stood at 0.6%, meaning that even if GDP remains flat for the remaining three quarters of 2026, the full-year growth rate will still be 0.6% higher than in 2025. Last month, the Meloni government revised down its growth forecasts for this year and next to 0.6% and 0.6%, previously 0.7% and 0.8%. In 2025, Italy's GDP growth is projected at 0.5%, marking the third consecutive year below 1%.
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