Forecasting the upcoming week: The US Dollar fell as ceasefire hopes supported risk sentiment

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell toward the 98.90 region on Friday as improving market sentiment linked to developments in the Middle East reduces demand for safe-haven assets. Although the latest United States (US) Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday held steady at 3.3% YoY in April, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates elevated for longer, investors focused on reports that the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and begin nuclear negotiations.

EUR/USD advances toward the 1.1670 area as broad US Dollar (USD) weakness supports the shared currency.

GBP/USD climbs toward the 1.3470 region, benefiting from softer demand for the Greenback. Sterling remains supported despite lingering concerns surrounding the United Kingdom's (UK) fiscal outlook and slowing economic growth.

USD/JPY trades near the 159.30 zone as the weaker US offsets support from elevated US yields. The Japanese Yen remains pressured after Tokyo Core CPI slowed to 1.4% YoY in May, while Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that energy shocks could become more persistent if they begin influencing wages and inflation expectations.

AUD/USD rises toward the 0.7190 region as improving sentiment surrounding US-Iran negotiations boosts demand for risk-sensitive currencies.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades near $88.00 per barrel as hopes for a ceasefire extension and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ease concerns over supply disruptions.

Gold surges near the $4,550 region as investors balance improving risk appetite against persistent geopolitical uncertainty and elevated global inflation pressures.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Friday, May 29:

• BoE's Mann

Sunday, May 31:

• UK BoE's Greene
• Fed's Waller
• Fed's Powell

Tuesday, June 2:

• ECB's Vujčić
• BoE Governor Bailey
• ECB's Sleijpen
• BoE's Greene

Wednesday, June 3:

• BoJ Governor Ueda
• ECB's Elderson
• Fed's Barr
• ECB's Cipollone
• BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings
• Fed Beige Book

Thursday, June 4:

• ECB President Lagarde
• BoE Governor Bailey

Friday, June 5:

• BoE's Dhingra
• BoE Governor Bailey

Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape

Friday, May 29:

• China Manufacturing PMI
• China Non-Manufacturing PMI

Sunday, May 31:

• AU TD-MI Inflation Gauge
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Monday, June 1:

• Eurozone Retail Sales
• CH Retail Sales
• CH GDP
• Germany Manufacturing PMI
• France Manufacturing PMI
• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
• Eurozone Unemployment Rate
• CA Manufacturing PMI
• US Manufacturing PMI
• AU Building Permits

Tuesday, June 2:

• Eurozone CPI
• US JOLTS Job Openings
• NZ Building Permits
• AU AiG Industry Index
• AU PMI
• AU Q1 GDP
• China Caixin Services PMI

Wednesday, June 3:

• Spain Services PMI
• Germany PMI
• Eurozone PMI
• Eurozone PPI
• US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
• US PMI
• US Factory Orders
• AU Trade Balance

Thursday, June 4:

• CH CPI
• Eurozone Retail Sales
• US Challenger Job Cuts
• US Initial Jobless Claims
• US Nonfarm Productivity
• US Unit Labor Costs
• JP Labor Cash Earnings

Friday, June 5:

• Eurozone GDP
• Eurozone Employment Change
• CA Employment Report
• CA Average Hourly Wages
• CA Unemployment Rate
• US Nonfarm Payrolls
• US Unemployment Rate
• US Average Hourly Earnings
• US Labor Force Participation Rate
• CA Ivey PMI