3 Smart Money Invests $200,000 to Bet on MicroStrategy Selling Bitcoin by July
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, three smart money participants are involved in the question "Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?" The participants have invested $204.0k in the "Yes" outcome, with an average buying probability of 66.9%. Currently, the "Yes" outcome probability stands at 75.3%.
Parz1vaI has invested $23.1k, with the top-related category in this market being MicroStrategy, resulting in a net profit of $15.3k. Out of 81 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 67/81 (83%), with 8 trades having a buying price below $0.8 and a selling price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $2.3k, making this investment 10.0 times the median.
Dropper has invested $110k, with the top-related category being MicroStrategy as well, resulting in a net profit of $87.1k. Out of 63 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 45/63 (71%), with 10 trades having a buying price below $0.8 and a selling price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $3.5k, making this investment 31.5 times the median.
0xa6d9b55a has invested $71.2k, with the top-related category being MicroStrategy too, resulting in a net profit of $59.1k. Out of 44 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 37/44 (84%), with only 1 trade having a buying price below $0.8 and a selling price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $27.3k.
In Exhibit 99.1 submitted to the SEC on May 26, Strategy confirmed that after completing the $1.5 billion 2029 Zero Coupon Convertible Senior Notes repurchase, the company holds 843,738 BTC, $6.7 billion in convertible notes principal, a $15.5 billion preferred stock nominal amount, and an $871 million USD Reserve. The company also stated its intention to supplement the USD Reserve based on market conditions.
CoinNess reported on May 30 that Strategy transferred 411 BTC to an exchange, marking the first major exchange transfer in nearly two years. However, 3 hours later, Strategy withdrew the 411 BTC from the related exchange address, valued at approximately $30.18 million. The exchange is a leading brokerage platform for institutional investors, offering trading, custody, and financing services.
Note: Based on the trader's historical trading behavior, it is inferred that the trader is not speculating on the actual outcome of the event, and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions after opening a position at a certain point in time.
Accounts:
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
0xa6d9b55a6a3a54a9d50ca94c64f00af69c50fd2f
Total Investment: $204.0k
---------------------------------
See the future earlier, follow @PolyBeatsEN on Twitter
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Orca Price Prediction October 2026: Can ORCA Reach $4 or Fall to $2.48 in October?
BUZZ - UBS downgrades Besi rating to "Sell" due to risk from hybrid bonds, stock price plunges
On October 7, BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI.AS) shares fell approximately 6% after UBS downgraded the Dutch chip equipment manufacturer from "Buy" to "Sell" and cut its target price by 57% to 159 euros. UBS stated that the expected demand for chip packaging technology "hybrid bonding" (HB)—the core of Besi's investment logic—"has not materialized as anticipated." UBS believes that because AI accelerator customers prioritize capacity expansion over performance improvements, the adoption rate of hybrid bonding technology in high-bandwidth memory will slow down. UBS expects that by 2028, hybrid bonding technology will account for 10% of equipment demand, whereas the market consensus suggests a figure of about 50%. The bank anticipates Besi's HB revenue in 2027-28 to be 50%-60% lower than consensus, and demand from co-packaged optics, AI accelerators, and PC processors is unlikely to fill the gap. UBS also noted that existing capacity at TSMC 2330.TW and Intel INTC.O is already sufficient to support "considerable shipment volumes," leaving limited upside unless adoption rates exceed expectations. Besi's share price extended Tuesday's losses, following a 5.4% drop after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock based on similar concerns. (link) (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters provides automated translations of its reports into several other languages. Due to the potential for errors or lack of required context in automated translations, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of these texts, which are provided solely for readers’ convenience. Reuters assumes no liability for any damages or losses resulting from the use of these automated translation functions.)
European automobile stocks rise
Euro falls against Canadian Dollar as surging oil prices overpower strong German data
Crypto prices
More
