Bank of America: Bull-Bear Indicator Rises to 8.5, Triggering 'Sell' Signal, Warns of Imminent Global Market Correction

On June 1, as market speculation continues to surge, Bank of America's bull-bear indicator has climbed from 8.0 to 8.5, signaling a 'sell' signal. The report warns that since 2002, this indicator has triggered sell signals 17 times, with global stock markets averaging a decline of 2% to 3% within 2 to 3 months, and maximum corrections reaching 15% to 20%. Bank of America points out that the recent spike in the bull-bear indicator is primarily driven by strong inflows into high-yield bonds (HY) and emerging market debt, alongside the bank's global breadth rule indicating that the market is 'overbought,' with a net 57% of stock indices trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Despite the S&P 500 index reaching new highs, the market structure is extremely fragile. Currently, only 21 stocks (about 4%) in the index have reached new highs, a figure reminiscent of the 20 stocks at the peak of the dot-com bubble in March 2000. Additionally, 222 stocks in the index have fallen over 20% from their highs, with 109 of those down more than 40%. Institutions and global funds have begun to withdraw. Last week, global stocks recorded a net outflow of $7 billion, marking the first outflow in nine weeks. Among these, the Japanese stock market saw an outflow of $8.2 billion, the largest single-week outflow since May 2025. In the face of a late-stage bubble market, Bank of America has provided a historical investment roadmap since 1929—advocating for the purchase of long-term bonds (historically, the median yield of 10-year Treasury bonds declines by 45 basis points within six months after the market peaks) and deploying defensive sectors, or sectors that have performed extremely poorly at the end of a bubble, while avoiding previously overhyped assets.