The El Niño phenomenon combined with crude oil fluctuations is disrupting the global sugar market, while higher-than-expected domestic production is suppressing price increases. June, traditionally a peak season for consumption, will be a key period to verify trends.

(1) Since May, El Nino climate uncertainty and crude oil price fluctuations have continued to affect global sugar market sentiment. (2) Domestically, the fundamentals of higher-than-expected sugar production are limiting the upside, but expectations of reduced import quotas and weather-related themes have driven strong capital sentiment. After a staged rise in futures prices, there has been a slight pullback. (3) Looking ahead to June, the market will enter a key verification period during the summer sugar consumption peak season. Three aspects require close attention: whether downstream beverage and food industry demand can significantly recover and accelerate destocking in sales regions; the pace and volume of imported sugar arrivals, as well as the subsequent issuance of import licenses; and the supply of raw materials and production progress at sugar processing plants, as their price quotes will continue to impact the market pattern in sales regions.