AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Softens below 114.50 on weaker Australian GDP, but bullish trend prevails

The AUD/JPY cross loses momentum to around 114.45 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Verbal intervention from Japanese authorities provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and acts as a headwind for the cross. 

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that officials are standing ready to respond appropriately on foreign exchange if required. Katayama added that she aligns with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor on several matters. 

Furthermore, a weaker-than-expected Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report might lead markets to expect a more dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and contribute to the Aussie’s downside. 

Australia's GDP grew 2.5% in the first three months this year, compared to 2.6% expansion a year earlier, and missed the market expectation of 2.7% growth, the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Australia's GDP expanded 0.3%, compared with 0.5% forecast, and decelerated from 0.8% growth in the prior quarter.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the Bollinger middle band and comfortably over the 100-day moving average. The pair is edging toward the upper Bollinger band resistance, while the Relative Strength Index near 57 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting buyers retain control but with room for consolidation.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the upper Bollinger band around 114.85, and a clear break above this cap would open the way for further gains in the near term. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 113.95, ahead of secondary protection at the lower band around 113.00, with the 100-day moving average at 111.40 reinforcing a broader demand zone on deeper pullbacks.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)