According to Guoyuan Futures, the current natural rubber market has entered a new “supply-driven” phase.
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Looking ahead to the market, under the dual constraints of El Niño climate disturbances and insufficient production capacity flexibility in major producing areas, even entering the peak production season, the pace of output recovery may still fall short of market expectations. This will further consolidate the overall tight supply pattern. In the short term, the upside potential for rubber prices may be limited by the pace of destocking in social inventories and finished tire inventories; however, the tight supply situation remains unchanged, meaning the central price level is expected to stay high. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the actual improvement in tire export orders, as well as whether the actual output released during the peak production season in major producing areas is lower than expected.
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