The ceasefire news between Lebanon and Israel has limited impact, as analysts say the geopolitical risk premium has already been priced in.

1. Analyst Eamonn Sheridan pointed out that the ceasefire framework agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon under US mediation has a negligible impact on the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market, as the market has already priced in this factor. 2. The agreement requires Hezbollah to completely withdraw from southern Lebanon and establish a "pilot zone" exclusively administered by the Lebanese military. However, these conditions—especially Hezbollah's complete ceasefire and withdrawal from the area south of the Litani River—are precisely the key issues where previous negotiations have repeatedly failed. 3. The next round of substantive negotiations will not take place until the week of June 22, which is still about three weeks away. This means that the announcement does not provide an immediate workable solution, but rather confirms that the Lebanon front remains a dynamic and uncertain factor. 4. More importantly, this development does not provide substantive help in resolving the transit impasse at the Strait of Hormuz, nor does it alleviate the broader tensions between the US and Iran that are currently driving up oil prices.