Analysis: If the Bank of England does not raise interest rates and political risks increase, the pound may decline

They stated that the recent weak UK data provides little support for expectations of an interest rate hike this year. "Our view remains that a rate hike is unlikely before 2027, and there is still a possibility of a rate cut before the end of this year." Meanwhile, if Andy Burnham wins the special election on June 18 and returns to Parliament, he may challenge UK Prime Minister Starmer's leadership. Monex expects that by autumn, GBP/USD and GBP/EUR will fall from the current 1.3455 USD and 1.1559 EUR to 1.32 USD and 1.11 EUR, respectively.