Oil: Chinese demand and US exports shape balance – ING

ING’s Warren Patterson notes that weaker Chinese crude imports and strong US exports have temporarily eased pressure on Oil, but he stresses these supports are not sustainable. China’s May 2026 crude imports fell sharply, while higher US exports are being drawn from inventories. Strategic reserve releases, including the US SPR, are ending by late July, likely accelerating market tightening.

China slowdown and US barrels offer brief relief

"There are several factors which have helped to take some pressure off oil markets since the start of the war."

"Crude oil imports in May 2026 fell 3.2m b/d year-on-year to 7.8m b/d – the weakest since October 2017."

"However, this is not sustainable, given that these stronger exports are coming from inventory rather than additional supply growth."

"Releases from strategic reserves have also shielded the market from significantly higher prices."

"However, these are coming to an end: the US SPR release is set to conclude by the end of July, after which the pace of tightening in the oil market is likely to pick up."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)