Gold: Fed expectations cap upside for now – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists note that Precious Metals, particularly Gold, are struggling to gain traction as elevated Fed hike probabilities keep real rates high. CTA's (Commodity Trading Advisors) are running a small net short and scenario analysis points to a relatively tight trading band. A fragile Iran deal backdrop and firm energy prices mean Gold is not yet in a clear recovery phase.
CTA shorts and constrained trading range
"Precious metals still can't catch a bid. Despite headlines driving oil lower, rates and probabilities of Fed hikes remain elevated, limiting the upside for gold."
"For now CTAs remain comfortable at a small net-short, with our pricing simulations highlighting a tight range under most scenarios."
"If potential deal talk keeps oil under wraps in the near-term, the worst case scenario of testing the next selling triggers just below the key $4000/oz level may be avoided for now."
"However, the still fragile deal framework and elevated energy pricing suggest precious metals are not fully out of the woods just yet."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
The "debt black hole" behind the AI boom: $1.2 trillion external financing may be needed in the next five years
The rapid surge of AI is creating an unprecedented "debt black hole": according to Bank of America estimates, total capital expenditure for building AI data centers between 2025 and 2030 will reach as much as $5 trillion, with external financing needs of core cloud giants alone reaching $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. Free cash flow is already running low for giants such as Amazon and Meta, while Nvidia and Broadcom have quietly taken on the role of "implicit guarantors"—marking the beginning of a capital gamble that is set to reshape global credit markets.
Analyst Makes Bold Prediction: Micron (MU.US) Expected to Surpass Microsoft (MSFT.US) in Fiscal Year 2027 Profit; Memory Prices Are the Key Factor
Is Micron (MU.US) expected to earn a net profit of $35 billion in a quarter, surpassing Microsoft's (MSFT.US) profits?
Warning Signs of US Stock Market Crash Reappear as in 2018 and 2022? Fed Tightening and US Treasury Supply Hit Amid Worsening Market Breadth, Liquidity Crisis May Be Approaching
Liquidity pressures may not yet be apparent on the surface of the market, but as market breadth in both stock and bond markets continues to deteriorate, these pressures are steadily accumulating internally.
X Finance Bull highlights $3,300 XRP price model filed with SEC
Crypto prices
More
