United Kingdom: Growth resilience but softer inflation – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja says the UK economy is tracking close to the Bank of England’s Scenario A, with stronger‑than‑expected early‑2026 GDP but a cooling labour market and easing price pressures. GDP is seen around 1% in 2026–27, while CPI is projected slightly below Scenario A and potentially under the 2% target at longer horizons.
Scenario A path for growth and CPI
"The economy - at least on the surface - has been stronger than the Bank assumed. GDP growth, to start the year, was stronger than the Bank anticipated. But the labour market has softened a touch, relative to the Bank's expectations."
"Relative to the MPC’s scenarios, we see GDP growth tracking closer to Scenario A, with output a little more resilient on the back of stronger catch up in Q1-26. Q2-26 GDP growth looks poised to push closer to 0.1-0.2% q-o-q. And annual GDP growth this year looks set to be at the BoE staff projection of 0.9%, with growth likely to push upwards of 1%."
"Based on current market conditions, GDP growth is expected to push a little past all three Bank scenario projections this year. Incorporating the stronger Q1-26, we would expect Bank projections, under current market conditions, to have increased to 1% (Scenario A: 0.8%). GDP growth in year 2 (2027), we expect, would also stay steady at 1% – broadly consistent with the Bank's Scenario A & B."
"On inflation, based on current market conditions, we would expect CPI to remain slightly below the Bank's Scenario A projections. If we applied the same conditioning assumptions to Scenario B, headline CPI would likely sit 0.1pp to 0.15pp below the Bank's projections at both the two-year and three-year forecast horizons – pushing headline CPI below the Bank's 2% target."
"Based on current market pricing and recent outturns, the UK economic trajectory remains closest to the Bank's Scenario A."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Oil prices and interest rates are rising, but US stocks still trust TACO
Oil prices have surpassed $100, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist—Wall Street's bet on the "Trump will always back down" TACO trade is facing its most dangerous moment. The unexpected resilience of US stocks has actually reduced Trump's motivation for reconciliation; the real pressure valve lies in bond yields approaching the 4.946% warning line. Behind-the-scenes negotiations are reportedly ongoing, but this time, can the market's patience last until Trump changes course?
Claude leads 26% of R&D, Anthropic raises heated discussion on "AI developing AI" with its "AI slowdown theory"! The RSI training paradigm is catalyzing a major expansion in computing power demand.
Anthropic PBC's Claude chatbot has driven more than a quarter of the company's AI research and development work. The company found that Claude "led" 26% of Anthropic's R&D efforts and collaborated with employees to complete about 90% of the work. Anthropic plans to introduce third-party evaluators within the company and grant them access to internal processes, systems, and data to help track the progress of AI development.
U.S. business growth drops to lowest in a year, stock price plunges 19% year-to-date! McDonald's (MCD.US) urgently changes leadership to rebuild "cost-effectiveness" defense line
Same-store sales growth in the United States fell to 0.8%, reaching a new low in over a year. McDonald's is urgently adjusting its strategy, planning to implement long-term affordable pricing, temporary discounts, and suspension of random inspections to optimize the service experience, making every effort to restore customer traffic and stock price.
Crypto prices
More
