The market narrative shifts from "war hedging" to "inflation hedging," while spot gold prices continue to fluctuate.

　　On the news front, the US and Iran have announced that they have reached a memorandum of understanding on a ceasefire, with the official signing ceremony scheduled for the 19th in Switzerland. On June 15, stimulated by the US-Iran peace agreement, safe-haven assets such as gold soared sharply, surpassing $4,300. Traditionally, geopolitical easing implies pressure on safe-haven assets, but this time gold's performance has completely upended this pattern.

　　Institutions generally believe that the market is shifting from a “war risk aversion” narrative to an “inflation risk aversion” framework. The ceasefire agreement does not mean that the dollar system has repaired the "deep cracks" exposed during this conflict. The protracted Middle East conflict indicates that the US’s dominance in the Hormuz Strait energy order has been challenged. Previously, market concerns over the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes were based on the assumption of persistently higher-than-expected inflation. The reopening of the Hormuz Strait implies weaker inflation expectations, and the space for a shift in Federal Reserve policy is expected to reopen, thereby easing the upward pressure on real US Treasury yields. Considering both the growth and inflation cycle, gold remains a high-quality portfolio hedging tool, and its asset stability still stands out. When market concerns about currency depreciation, expanding fiscal deficits, and high global debt levels heat up, gold's hedging attribute continues to stand out. Such medium- to long-term macro contradictions are difficult to resolve in the short term, which will support a gradual upward movement in gold prices.

Editor: Zhu Henan