Spot gold continues to decline, but Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the long-term trend

　　As of 13:52, spot gold was quoted at $4,119.27 per ounce, plunging $61.60 for the day, a decrease of 1.47%. Macro factors are mixed: the Federal Reserve held its interest rate at 3.75% in June, but the dot plot indicated the possibility of further rate hikes within the year. The upward movement in 10-year US Treasury yields is putting pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. However, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the continued trend of global central bank gold purchases are providing strong support for gold prices. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory stands at 111,639 kilograms, down 24 kilograms week-on-week, remaining stable.

　　In terms of market liquidity, COMEX gold futures positions remain elevated, ETF holdings have seen small inflows recently, and gold's status as a safe-haven asset continues to attract recognition from capital.

　　Morgan Stanley stated that without a significant rebound in ETF inflows, its bullish target of $5,200 for gold prices in the second half of the year will become increasingly difficult to achieve. Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, as easing tensions in the Middle East and falling oil prices help alleviate inflation concerns. However, the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish tone in its latest meeting, reinforcing expectations for higher interest rates to remain in place for a prolonged period, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and other non-yielding assets.

Editor: Zhu Henan