Oil: Softer path for Brent and WTI as Hormuz reopens – Rabobank

Rabobank’s energy strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit cuts Brent and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) forecasts after the Versailles MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. They now see Brent at $79/bbl in Q3 2026 and $78 in Q4, with WTI at $75.50 and $74 respectively, and project a generally declining price path into 2028.

MoU drives lower crude benchmarks

"We are lowering our Q3 Brent forecast to $79/bbl from $103, and Q4 2026 to $78/bbl from $93. We expect Brent prices to decline in 2027 to $74.50, and to $71 in 2028."

"Therefore, we see WTI at $75.50 for Q3 2026 and $74 for Q4, and have lowered our 2027 forecasts to $70/bbl and 2028 forecasts to $66.50/bbl."

"Assuming that the Strait remains open throughout the MoU 60-day trial period and mines are cleared, we see an initially bearish path forward for oil."

"With the U.A.E. [The United Arab Emirates] leaving OPEC and expanding the Fujairah pipeline alongside new South American and U.S. oil production against tepid growth over the next three to five years, we see longer term prices moving downward toward the marginal cost of production per barrel from the U.S."

"In the meantime, only the volatility around flows restarting from Hormuz will provide some temporary uplifts to prices."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)