New home sales and PCE data are coming this week, with inflation readings influencing policy expectations
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- Among the remaining U.S. economic data this week, May new home sales will be released on Wednesday. The market expects an annualized 632,000 units, up 1.6% from the previous value of 622,000 units. The previous month saw a decline of 6.2%. If the data meets expectations, it will indicate a moderate recovery in housing demand.
- Thursday is a data-heavy day, with May durable goods orders expected to decrease by 4.0% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 7.9%. Such a sharp pullback due to base effects is already anticipated. The third revision of Q1 real GDP is expected to remain at 1.7%, and the GDP price index is expected to stay flat at 3.5%.
- On the same day, May personal income is expected to grow by 0.4%, and consumer spending by 0.6%, both improving compared to previous values. The PCE price index is expected to increase year-on-year from 3.8% to 4.1%, and core PCE year-on-year from 3.3% to 3.4%. If inflation figures rise as expected, it could strengthen market expectations for policy rates to remain at high levels.
- On Friday, the final June consumer confidence reading will be released, with an expected value of 49.0, slightly higher than the initial reading of 48.9, but still near historic lows. This reflects persistent pessimism among residents about the economic outlook, with little chance of a significant turnaround in the short term.
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