Copper: Tariff support versus demand risks – TD Securities
TD Securities’ commodity team notes that Copper is seeing large CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) selling as markets look past Strait of Hormuz supply risks and focus more on macro and demand-side weakness. They highlight that upcoming US tariff decisions could temporarily support Copper prices, but soft Chinese physical premiums and rising commercial inventories point to a deteriorating demand profile.
Tariff decision offsets weakening demand
"Base metal unwind. CTAs are large-scale sellers of copper, zinc and nickel on the day, while aluminum remains skewed to additional marginal selling."
"As the market begins to look past supply risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz, base metals are increasingly prone to any signs of macro/demand-side weakness."
"For copper, next week's tariff decision uncertainty is likely to keep prices supported, however easing physical premiums in China continue to point toward a weaker demand profile."
"While SHFE inventories are falling, measures of commercial inventories are starting to rise in the Middle Kingdom amid ample supply from smelters and softer demand."
"The red metal is also becoming more prone to demand-side weakness, however prices would need to fall to $13,000/t before further systematic selling kicks in."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Societe Generale’s cost-cut plan targets €1.9B in savings by 2029
The "debt black hole" behind the AI boom: $1.2 trillion external financing may be needed in the next five years
The rapid surge of AI is creating an unprecedented "debt black hole": according to Bank of America estimates, total capital expenditure for building AI data centers between 2025 and 2030 will reach as much as $5 trillion, with external financing needs of core cloud giants alone reaching $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. Free cash flow is already running low for giants such as Amazon and Meta, while Nvidia and Broadcom have quietly taken on the role of "implicit guarantors"—marking the beginning of a capital gamble that is set to reshape global credit markets.
Analyst Makes Bold Prediction: Micron (MU.US) Expected to Surpass Microsoft (MSFT.US) in Fiscal Year 2027 Profit; Memory Prices Are the Key Factor
Is Micron (MU.US) expected to earn a net profit of $35 billion in a quarter, surpassing Microsoft's (MSFT.US) profits?
Warning Signs of US Stock Market Crash Reappear as in 2018 and 2022? Fed Tightening and US Treasury Supply Hit Amid Worsening Market Breadth, Liquidity Crisis May Be Approaching
Liquidity pressures may not yet be apparent on the surface of the market, but as market breadth in both stock and bond markets continues to deteriorate, these pressures are steadily accumulating internally.
Crypto prices
More
