Robinhood stock decouples from Bitcoin after months of tight correlation

Robinhood Markets stock has started to move away from Bitcoin after months of close price action, according to a chart shared by trader Heisenberg on X. 

The chart showed HOOD and BTC moving near each other from October 2025 before separating in recent weeks.

“Since October 2025, HOOD and BTC have been fairly neck to neck in correlation,” said Heisenberg. “But in the last month or so, Robinhood has decoupled away from Bitcoin.”

HOOD traded near $103.25 at check time, while Bitcoin traded near $62,710. The split drew attention because Robinhood has often moved with crypto sentiment due to its large retail trading base and crypto revenue stream.

The recent move suggests investors may now price Robinhood on more than crypto trading volumes. Product growth, prediction markets, AI trading tools and international expansion have become larger parts of the company’s equity story.

Robinhood raises $2 billion

Robinhood priced a $2 billion private offering of 0% convertible senior notes due in 2029. The company said it would use about $290 million of the proceeds to repurchase Class A common stock.

Robinhood also plans to use $112 million for capped call transactions. The rest may fund general corporate purposes, including growth investments, possible acquisitions and capital spending.

The notes have an initial conversion price of about $174.42 per share. That represents a 65% premium to Robinhood’s closing stock price on June 22. The capped call structure has an initial cap price near $237.85 per share.

The deal gives Robinhood more flexibility at a time when its stock has already rallied past $100. It also shows that the company is raising capital while investor interest in its wider product lineup remains active.

Prediction markets add a new growth driver

Prediction markets have become one of Robinhood’s main growth areas. As previously reported, Bernstein expects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue to rise from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026.

The report said World Cup activity pushed daily prediction market volumes as high as $4.8 billion. Robinhood’s partner Rothera has processed about 200 million contracts since launch, according to the same coverage.

In a recent update, Cantor Fitzgerald raised its Robinhood price target to $130. The firm cited new products, prediction markets, public listing activity and regulation as possible growth supports.

That matters for the HOOD and BTC link. If prediction markets, options, equities and AI products account for more of Robinhood’s growth, the stock may trade less like a direct Bitcoin proxy.

Crypto expansion still matters

Robinhood has not stepped away from crypto. The company completed its $180 million acquisition of WonderFi in June, giving it a regulated entry point into Canada’s crypto market.

The WonderFi deal brought Bitbuy and Coinsquare under Robinhood’s umbrella. The acquisition added about 300,000 funded customer accounts and expanded Robinhood’s international crypto footprint.

Robinhood has also kept adding digital assets to its trading platform. In a recent update, its Worldcoin listing brought fresh attention to the company’s crypto offering even as WLD fell sharply.

The company’s crypto business can still affect investor sentiment. Earlier this month, Robinhood announced layoffs affecting about 290 employees after weaker crypto activity weighed on first-quarter results and profit.

Still, the latest decoupling shows that investors may be treating Robinhood as a broader financial technology platform. Bitcoin remains important to the company’s story, but it is no longer the only driver. For now, HOOD’s ability to stay above $100 while BTC remains under pressure has become the key market signal.